What if Israel attacks Iran ? What UAE can do through public diplomacy

The Economist in an article "Coming to a city near you " - Be very afraid, please. says that Israel may attack Iran; and possibly alone. The recent testing of long-range missiles by Iran and subsequent sabre-rattling from Israel has heightened tensions in the region. Iran has retaliated by saying that all it has to do it close the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 40% of the world's oil passes. This is definitely a serious threat which neither Israel nor the rest of the world can ignore.

Soaring Oil prices, ending of President Bush's term, Iran's testing of the long-range missiles, USA's insistence that Iran is enriching Uranium. All these factors may contribute to the kind of propaganda that led to the campaign and eventual destruction of Iraq. One sees a similar pattern here in the case of Iran.

What if Iran is attacked? Implications for UAE

Kish island is just a few hours away by the Sea from UAE. The proximity to Iran makes UAE a danger zone of sorts, should there be an attack on Iran. Though USA is a "close ally" to UAE, the members of the GCC and UAE in particular consider Iran a friendly nation. Though in the early 1980s', Iran did not recognise the GCC and in turn the member states were suspicious of Iran's intentions, since the shah had been overthrown in the revolution and the rhetoric was of a "republic" ( and all the GCC members are monarchies). The relationship has been one of cooperation amidst suspicion.

UAE has had good relations with Iran and the strong Iranian community in UAE testifies to this. Iranian businesses thrive in UAE and Dubai in particular. The governments also enjoy healthy diplomatic relations.

If Israel decides to attack Iran, with out the help of USA, it would be disastrous for the entire world, not just the region. Despite the OPEC promising to increase production, price control measures and diplomacy at the hightest level, Oil prices continue to rise by the day. If there is an attack on Iran, there would be chaos. Regional powers may join in and particularly Syria and Lebanon ( with its Hizbolla) may join in retaliating against the Israeli aggression. This could signal the beginning of another prolonged regional war.

UAE has considerable influence in the region, largely because of its economic clout and also its standing as a peaceful country. The rulers would do well to ease the tensions and send signals that there is no need for conflict in the region. Having a meeting of heads of state or even foreign ministers of all GCC members along with the foreign minister of Iran and Israel separately - would be the first step to easing the tension buildig up in the region. As always, UAE can take the first step and thought leadership to visualise a more stable and peaceful Middle East.